This article was written by Li Hang Kin, a student in Hong Kong.
“It’s the economy, stupid”...
This phrase coined by Jim Carville, strategist who secured Bill Clinton the 1992 U.S. presidential election, summarises a key reason behind Trump's victory over Harris in the 2024 presidential election. In fact, this idea applies to most, if not all, elections. Personal ideals or beliefs carry little importance when economic concerns are prevalent. Citizens, especially those from the low income or middle class, prioritise economic conditions above all else. Without a doubt, in this election, there are other factors at play, such as the widespread disinformation campaigns, xenophobic ideas, etc, but it is of greater importance for us to focus on the future and explore the implications this election could have on global politics.
The Russo-Ukrainian War
Donald Trump has pledged to “end all wars” throughout his campaign, with the Russo-Ukrainian War being a likely target. Why? This stance aligns with Trump’s favourite rhetoric: “America First”. It is of little interest to U.S. citizens to use their hard-earned money to fund a war taking place across the Atlantic which has minimal impact on them. This feeling would intensify if the U.S. faces an economic downturn. Of course, it could be argued that it somewhat aligns with the interests of the United States to contain the growth of Russia. However, Trump seeks to remove all unnecessary distractions that prevent him from restraining China, considered as the United States’ greatest enemy. Compared to China, Russia, whose economy and technological growth have stalled for some time, isn’t much of a threat.
How could this be done? It is unlikely that both sides would be willing to compromise. From the U.S. point of view, it is conceivable that Trump would be either asking Ukraine to surrender, or force it to accept a deal. It is unlikely that Trump could demand huge concessions from Putin, something that Putin can’t afford to do. Putin giving in would expose vulnerability, possibly threatening his long reign. Moreover, such demands could worsen US-Russia relations, which would not align with Trump's primary objective of countering China. If Trump were to pursue such an approach, it would inevitably undermine the United States’ credibility on the global stage. It would also strain relationships with European allies.
Israeli–Palestinian War:
As quoted from the BBC “In the White House, Trump enacted strongly pro-Israel policies, naming Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and moving the US embassy there from Tel Aviv” Additionally, the New York Times reported that “The United States, under the first Trump administration, became the first country in the world to recognize Israel’s authority over the long-disputed Golan Heights.”, furthermore, in 2018 “The Trump administration cut off all American funding to the United Nations agency that provides assistance to millions of Palestinian refugees, UNRWA”
Moreover, Trump needs the support of Jewish Americans. The Israel lobbying groups are large. The largest pro-Israel lobbying group, Christians United for Israel, has over seven million members.
Given his history of strong support for Israel and the need for the support of pro-Israeli Americans. It is therefore likely that even in the face of strong opposition, Trump would continue to back Israel, let it continue with the war, or even provide additional support to help Israel end the war quickly. He could also pressure Netanyahu to cut back some of his unattainable war aims, such as wiping out Hamas entirely, which is virtually impossible due to Hamas’ use of guerilla tactics.
China
China is widely regarded as a significant threat to both Trump and the United States (this might be the only thing that Democrats and Republicans agree on….)
China, though suffering from an economic crisis, as well as faltering confidence levels, still has a reasonably strong economic potential, thus remains a threat to the United States.
This threat is especially exemplified in the new energy industry. According to CNBC, BYD’s most affordable model, the Seagull hatchback, costs only 69,800 yuan ($9,658), but drives well and is put together with craftsmanship that rivals U.S.-made electric vehicles that cost three times as much.
U.S. politicians and manufacturers already see Chinese EVs as a serious threat. Under the Biden administration, tariffs on EVs from China have quadrupled, from 25% to 100%. If the imported vehicles are of poor quality and lack advanced technological features, they will not pose a significant threat to local EV producers in the United States. However, the implementation of tariffs suggests the opposite, indicating that there are concerns about potential competition from these imports.
It is highly likely that Trump would be increasing tariffs on China. According to the BBC, Trump has threatened to impose “an additional 10% tariff, above any additional tariffs" on China, after being inaugurated on 20 January 2025.
Domestic Turmoil
However, it is reasonable to expect that such measures would not be implemented in the near future. Trump would prioritise revenge over everything else.
He continues to insist that the 2020 election was rigged, and the presidential seat was stolen from him. As quoted from CNN, Trump threatened by saying “... WHEN I WIN, those people that CHEATED will be prosecuted to the fullest extent of the Law, which will include long term prison sentences so that this Depravity of Justice does not happen again,”. It is uncertain how exactly “those people … will be prosecuted”, but one thing is certain: Trump would take all necessary measures to weaken his opponents, something that could be possibly done with control over both the House of Representatives and the Senate.
Uncertainty…
Exactly how such events unfold is uncertain, as Trump is known to be highly unpredictable. While Trump's policies would more or less likely defy expectations, one thing is certain: his return to power will bring significant shifts in both domestic and international politics.
The views and opinions expressed in this article belong solely to the writer and do not necessarily reflect the views and opinions of the Warwick Economics Summit.
References:
● https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c2dl0e4l7lzo
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tariffs-as-soon-as-he-won/
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