This article was written by Dheer Chawla a student at the University of Warwick. This article is part of his column 'Behind the Headlines'.
An increasing tide of global tensions sees member countries of NATO making open preparations under the apprehension of a Third World War. It is chiefly instigated by the chilling revisions made by Vladimir Putin in Russia's doctrine regarding nuclear weapons. It enables the use of nuclear weapons in response to a conventional missile attack by a hostile state and, therefore, lowers the threshold of a nuclear conflict, adding to international concern. In this light, the protracted resistance of Ukraine and the growing international concern present a grim prospect – a world standing at the precipice.
A Nuclear Pivot and Its Consequences
Russia's new nuclear doctrine constitutes a dramatically different landscape in terms of world security. By retreating on parameters for a nuclear strike, Putin introduces a destabilizing factor into an already precarious geopolitical environment. Echoes abound of Cold War brinkmanship but with one key difference: modern conflicts are infinitely more interconnected.
NATO member countries are racing to respond. Germany, normally very cautious about militarization because of its history, has now openly warned its citizens to prepare for a possible escalation. The Defense Minister, Boris Pistorius, underlined the dual nature of the threat from Russia, military and hybrid, for which Europe should turn to an all-round defence strategy. Germany's acting as a staging ground for NATO is a further signal of readiness to counter a wider conflict.
Elsewhere, Nordic countries are taking unprecedented precautions. Sweden and Norway have distributed survivalist pamphlets asking citizens to hoard food, water, and iodine pills in advance of a nuclear, biological, or chemical attack. Finland has called for deeper cooperation with NATO and the EU to protect critical infrastructure. These measures mirror Cold War preparations and highlight the tenor of the times.
Ukraine: A Battleground of Global Power
For more than 1,000 days, Ukraine has stood as a bulwark against Russian aggression. Yet, as former Ukrainian military chief Valery Zaluzhny pointed out, the war has evolved beyond a bilateral conflict. The involvement of North Korean soldiers, Iranian drones, and Chinese weaponry on Ukrainian soil transforms it into a proxy battlefield for competing global powers. Zaluzhny's stark warning that "World War III has begun" is not hyperbolic but a sobering acknowledgement of this very reality.
It was a critical escalation when the Biden administration allowed Ukraine to strike Russian soil with American-made long-range missiles. The move aimed to strengthen Ukraine's defence, but risks provoking a direct confrontation with Russia. How close the situation is to running out of control is best represented by the response from Moscow — a revised nuclear doctrine and experimental missile launches.
The Role of NATO and the West
NATO's reaction to the crisis has been multivariate but guarded: while furnishing the best arms and strengthening defences, member states are equally aware of the dangers of overreach. The incremental strategy of the alliance thus far has been one of supporting Ukraine without crossing the threshold into outright military conflict with Russia.
As Zaluzhny emphasized, however, Ukraine cannot win this fight alone. The reluctance of the West to commit fully—spooked by the spectre of nuclear escalation and domestic political pressures—brings into question the long game. An emerging divide between those arguing for more comprehensive support and those urging restraint underlines coalition fragility.
Beyond Ukraine: A World on Edge
The potential of a world war does not remain confined to the borders of Ukraine anymore. The Middle East remains a tinderbox, with the war between Israel and Hamas drawing in external powers like the U.S. and Iran. In the Indo-Pacific, China's growing assertiveness and deepening association with Russia further complicate the geopolitical equation. These hotspots, though subtle, nonetheless are interlinked by common alliances, rivalries, and possibilities for miscalculation.
Even in the U.S., the spectre of World War III is shaping domestic discourse. Former President Donald Trump's repeated claims of being able to "end the war in Ukraine in a day" have become campaign trail rhetoric while his allies accuse the Biden administration of pushing the world closer to conflict. Such polarizing narratives undermine the coherence of U.S. foreign policy at a time when unity is critical.
The Growing Threat of Nuclear Chain Reactions
The interdependence of contemporary war carries with it a sobering prospect: the domino effect of nuclear escalation. As several states are aligning their arsenals and policies in the light of growing tensions, one single misstep might get out of control and spread across the world. For example, Russia's closer alignment with North Korea and China extends its reach into volatile regions, amplifying risks. A miscalculation in Ukraine can spill over into the Indo-Pacific, where larger superpower confrontations are already on edge. Unlike previous global conflicts, the number of players with advanced weaponry and their interconnected alliances make containment of such a conflict no longer guaranteed.
Equally frightening is the role of non-state actors exploiting such fragility. In the face of increased movement of arms and materials into hotbeds of conflict, access to sophisticated weapons by extreme groups is not a remote possibility. The blurred distinction between state and non-state actors further enhances the unpredictability of conflicts, creating a nuclear engagement or large-scale military action which slides beyond the control of any single nation. It now requires, given the layered complexity, not only traditional diplomacy but also a reimagined global security framework able to address state and non-state threats in an era of compounded uncertainty.
Lessons from History
World wars do not break out because of one single event; they emanate from a combination of crises, alliances, and wrong moves. There is an uncanny resemblance between the present geopolitical tensions and the World Wars of the 20th century, building up before that huge upsurge. In 1914, the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand was only a catalyst, not the cause, for World War I. Similarly, the global economic turmoil and unresolved animosities of the interwar period set the stage for World War II.
Today, the Ukrainian war could be argued to represent the Archduke moment of our time. Contained it stays or becomes the flashpoint toward a wider conflagration – your guess is as good as mine – depending upon how astute world leaders can navigate an extraordinarily complex and volatile landscape.
Conclusion: A Narrowing Window
World War III is no longer a distant theoretical possibility but a plausible one. NATO prepares, Russia pivots to nuclear options, and, as with all modern conflicts, the window for diplomatic wriggling seems ever smaller. The stakes are existential, and the cost of failure is unimaginable.
As it were, the time to act is now, so says Zaluzhny. The world needs to understand the gravity of the situation and commit to a strategy that achieves de-escalation without sacrificing Ukraine's sovereignty. Anything less will shift the balance from uneasy peace to all-out war, where no nation on the planet will come out unscathed – irrespective of the level of military power.
The views and opinions expressed in this article belong solely to the writer and do not necessarily reflect the views and opinions of the Warwick Economics Summit.
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