This article was written by Dheer Chawla a student at the University of Warwick. This article is part of his column 'Behind the Headlines'.
The re-election of Donald Trump as the President of the United States will undeniably mark a massive change, not only in the internal dynamics of the US but also in the global order it has long presided over. For decades, the United States has been a steady guardian of the ‘Pax Americana’, a term given to the concept of peace in the Western Hemisphere, and later in the world following World War II in 1945. This came at a point when the United States became the prevalent economic, and military power. Trump's return, however, points to a disassociation from this international legacy, propelling the world—and Britain—into an era marked by unpredictability. This change imposes a new load on British policymakers and the UK’s relationship with the US, in light of the challenges the country will face in adapting to this altered global paradigm.
A Retreat from Multilateralism: Consequences for the UK and Europe
Trump’s agenda of “America First” will likely push the United States further away from its traditional role as a multilateral leader, to a more transactional and insular approach to foreign relations. The United Kingdom, having long modelled its foreign and economic policies on American standards, is now in a position where it will have to rethink its global strategy as the US turns inward. Britain will no longer be able to blithely rely securely on the relationship, given Trump’s focus on bilateral rather than coalition-based alliances. The President-elect’s approach to geopolitical associations could strain the UK’s diplomatic channels and compel Britain to negotiate more independently on matters like security and trade.
The Climate Conundrum: Undermining Green Progress
One of the most visible setbacks under Trump 2.0 will unequivocally be his stance on climate change, rewording for precision, his blatant dismissal of it. His “drill, baby, drill” mantra, plans to withdraw from the Paris Agreement, and entrenchment in fossil fuel production stand in stark contrast to the climate ambitions set by the UK and the European Union. British leaders have long endorsed a green transition, yet Trump’s antagonism to environmental regulation will diminish progress on both sides of the Atlantic. The United States is a major global polluter, and the UK will have a tough time advancing climate initiatives without American cooperation, especially when competing with the prices of American fossil fuel, which will impair European green energy markets.
Trump’s energy policies, reflecting from his call of climate change as ‘one of the great scams of all time’ also jeopardise the long-term stability of global climate goals by reinforcing the financial and political dominance of fossil fuel industries, thereby undermining the importance of other nations to transition away from these sources too. For the UK, this establishes complications for its net-zero targets and places an additional strain on its green sectors, which will now be compelled to compete with a potentially ‘resurgent’ American fossil fuel industry.
Trade and Economic Protectionism: A Potential UK-EU-US Trade Tug-of-War
Trump’s ‘protectionist’ stance on trade emerges as a formidable challenge for Europe and, as a corollary, the UK. By Trump's promise of imposition of sweeping tariffs on European goods, and focus on the reduction of the US trade deficit, the UK could face an immensely difficult balancing act. Should Britain aim for closer trade alignment with the EU to form a more resilient bloc, or instead attempt to navigate an independent path in bilateral negotiations with the US? Both options hold equally high risks: while alignment with the European Union might provide leverage against Trump’s tariffs, it could potentially limit the UK’s capacity for flexible trade policy. On the other hand, a solo strategy may fail to yield favourable terms, given Trump’s preference for economic concessions.
Additionally, Trump’s resolve to scale back US involvement in international trade standards could be the weakening point for the global economic framework that the UK heavily relies on, especially as it grapples with post-Brexit challenges. For example, Trump’s disinterest in upholding the World Trade Organization’s (WTO) appellate body could go on to deprive countries of vital mechanisms for dispute resolution. If these multilateral frameworks deteriorate, the UK may need to develop alternative strategies, including regional partnerships or reliance on EU mechanisms.
A Waning Commitment to Defense and Security: Repercussions for NATO and the UK
There is a high chance of renewed ambivalence from Trump towards NATO. This would then mean that the UK, which relies heavily on American support for European security, will experience much louder defence challenges. The threats by Trump to withdraw perhaps from NATO or even make U.S. support conditional on spending by Europeans would create, in a way, a 'security vacuum' across Europe. For the UK, a weakened NATO would mean either higher defence expenditures or, more profoundly, closer cooperation with European defence initiatives such as EU joint operations, which it has generally shunned, wary of integrating defence policy with the European Union.
In the specific case of Ukraine, Trump’s potential pressurisation of Kyiv to negotiate a peace deal and objectives to reduce US aid could, in a sense, compromise the geopolitical security that both Europe and the UK have upheld. Britain’s commitments in the East of Europe would end up facing new strains, presumably pushing it toward more authoritative defence postures and complicating its relationship with Russia, a country it has consistently held at arm’s length.
Technology and Competition: Decoupling from Transatlantic Standards
One of the more ‘subtle but critical’ areas of Trump’s influence will be seen with technology and digital governance. Past efforts among the US-EU partnership to synchronise on technological standards may be rejected by the Trump administration, with Trump potentially dissolving forums like the US-EU Trade and Technology Council. This broad distortment of cooperation could affect the UK (which post-Brexit, has often had to navigate between EU and US standards).
Trump’s alliance with influential American tech entrepreneurs like Elon Musk poses more challenges for the EU and, thus, the UK. If the EU decides to fine Musk’s platform, X, for regulatory breaches, the Trump administration might retaliate against European digital policy, thereby reigniting tensions in digital trade. Such a scenario could put the UK in a spot where it’d have to make some difficult decisions about aligning with US or EU tech policies, both of which carry significant relevance in terms of market access and regulatory autonomy.
Domestic Implications: Resurgent Nationalism and Political Fragmentation
Trump’s reelection may also inspire similar nationalist and populist sentiments within Britain. Mimicking how the first Trump administration sparked populist movements worldwide, Trump 2.0 could invigorate British leaders inclined toward nativist policies. Keir Starmer’s leadership may land under pressure to adapt or appropriately respond to these currents, as traditional political platforms may be challenged by the populist narrative that Trump exemplifies. The UK’s political stability may depend on how well it can navigate these populist currents, especially in the case of social media platforms, specifically X considering involvement from Elon Musk, amplifying divisive messaging that mirrors Trump’s methods.
Financial Services: A Strained Transatlantic Financial Ecosystem
Trump’s influence will have a massive impact on the stability of global financial markets, particularly if he truncates cooperation with international financial regulatory bodies. His potential interference in the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) independence could garble the global financial system, affecting the UK’s banking sector, which is connected heavily to American finance. Furthermore, Trump’s possible rollback of Basel III rules—intended to ensure financial institutions have adequate capital—could lead to a much more volatile financial environment in which UK banks, reliant on transatlantic stability, will face increased uncertainty.
For Britain, a Trump-led America represents a financial wildcard that may tamper with efforts to regulate emerging sectors like cryptocurrency. While Trump’s policies may initially appeal to Wall Street and ignite short-term growth, this financial oversight could intensify long-term risks that reverberate through the global economy.
Healthcare and Global Health Cooperation: Isolationism at the Cost of Shared Progress
The potential withdrawal of the US from the World Health Organization (WHO), a move Trump has floated previously, would be a devastating blow to global health efforts. British health officials, who have benefited from WHO-backed programs, will find their capacity for global health engagement diminished without US contributions. Furthermore, UK-based pharmaceutical industries could feel the ripple effects of Trump’s policies on drug pricing, with potential consequences for investment and innovation.
Conclusion: Navigating an Era of Disrupted Alliances
The re-election of Donald Trump is an unprecedented challenge to Britain. Its traditional policy strategies, hitherto designed to work in close cooperation with American norms while retaining a degree of European cooperation, are under threat. On everything from climate to defence, trade to financial stability, Trump's return to power signals a retreat from multilateralism into a more fragmented global order. Britain will now have to reassess its long-held assumptions and forge new alliances and policy innovations to protect itself from the uncertainty that Trump's election is likely to unleash.
This is the key choice that the UK has to make in the face of such instability: adapt its strategies to the demands of a post-American Pax Americana or cling to a crumbling transatlantic alliance. As Trump reforges America's priorities, Britain faces the choice of passively enduring the resulting aftershocks or proactively forging a course that will balance its economic needs with a commitment to democratic resilience. That decision may well define Britain's future standing on the world stage in the decades ahead, in confrontation with a redefined world order.
The views and opinions expressed in this article belong solely to the writer and do not necessarily reflect the views and opinions of the Warwick Economics Summit.
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