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Between Dialectics and Deadlock: Scholz, Putin, and the Complexities of Modern Geopolitics

Dheer Chawla
Nov 17, 20245 min read

This article was written by Dheer Chawla a student at the University of Warwick. This article is part of his column 'Behind the Headlines'.


A one-hour phone call from German Chancellor Olaf Scholz to Russian President Vladimir Putin would have to be more than a mere diplomatic overture; this being the first in 2 years, it was an act of navigating an ideological and strategic labyrinth. In a world reeling from war, economic strain, and political fragmentation, this dialogue lays bare the complexity and contradiction of statecraft in an era of contested norms.



The Semiotics of Dialogue: Why the Call Matters

In an era where symbols are almost as significant as substance, the call unquestionably sent shockwaves through the geopolitical world. For Scholz, it was a bold display of how his government would pursue peace without surrender. To Putin, it was an emblematic breaking of the diplomatic cordon sanitaire thrown up by the West.

It is anything but a normal moment in history. This is a point where liberal democracies must decide some fundamental questions about how much pragmatism they will mix with principles. In the background of Germany's political turmoil and the aftershocks of Donald Trump's electoral return, this phone call by Scholz with Putin underlined cracks within the European and transatlantic alliances.


Scholz's Dilemma: Condemning yet Communicating

It's quite the paradoxical position that Scholz has gotten himself into. On one hand, his call constituted an affirmation of Germany's full support for Ukraine. His demand for the pullback of Russian troops and condemnation of this war as aggression signalled that Berlin shared Kyiv's desires to restore the country's sovereignty and provide justice. On the other hand, the very fact of speaking with Putin ran counter to the common political goal of the West to isolate Moscow.

This juggling act is representative of a more general strategic predicament that has been facing Germany: expected to be both the moral guide and pragmatic doer of Europe. Yet, domestic vulnerabilities – Scholz's coalition government in collapse, with a snap election looming – might well force him toward short-term political calculations at the expense of long-term geopolitical strategy.


Putin's Calculated Gains: The Illusion of Engagement

That was a calculated call to dent Western resolve and help promote an image of sane engagement for Vladimir Putin. Demanding recognition of "new territorial realities," describing the war as one called by NATO's aggressions, was typical of Moscow's narrative engineering.

Putin is a man who thrives on ambiguity. With talks and maximalist demands, the Russian President hopes to drive fissures within the Western bloc. The call was an opportunity to appear conciliatory without budging an inch in yielding from Russia's goals. If a call can be described by Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov as "very positive", that itself is a symbolic victory for Moscow in such tete-a-tetes.


The Trumpian Specter: A Realignment of Western Priorities?

Yet, these developments pale compared to the longer shadow cast by the re-election of Donald Trump as President of the United States. Trump's transactionalism in international relations, coupled with ambiguity in his Russia policy, is ominous for a Western policy adjustment on Ukraine. The recent comments by Vice President-elect JD Vance on offering an accommodation of Russian territorial gains are indicative that U.S. priorities may be moving toward Europe taking responsibility for the survival of Ukraine.

It may portend a realignment which could make the call by Scholz all the more urgent. Were Washington to retreat, the importance of Berlin would become exponential. But Europe is anything but united. The call by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán for the EU to discard its sanctions against Russia – framing those as an existential threat to the European economy – reveals the cracks in the European project.


Energy and Economic Entanglements

The energy dimension looms large in this calculus. Putin's veiled offer of "mutually beneficial cooperation" in energy trade was a subtle reminder of Europe's dependence upon Russian energy—a dependency which, though reduced, is not eliminated. Rising energy costs and inflation spur public discontent across the continent, most of all in regions like Germany's east, where the nostalgia for Ostpolitik and economic pragmatism is still potent.

For Olaf Scholz, the economic reality is a double-edged sword: sustaining public support for Ukraine while simultaneously attending to those socio-economic grievances that may erode the very political cohesion of Germany. 


Zelenskyy's Warning: The Dangers of Negotiation Without Preconditions

Scholz called Zelenskyy before and after his interaction with Putin. The Ukrainian President made it plain in rejecting the notion of a Minsk-3 – a reference, of course, to the failed ceasefire agreements of the past – Kyiv insists on a settlement grounded in justice, not expediency.

Therein lies the rub: peace that legitimates aggression is no peace; it's a prelude to further conflict. The trouble for Scholz will be how he navigates this difficult topography without inadvertently surrendering the moral and strategic high ground to Moscow.


The Dialectics of Diplomacy: A Way Forward?

The phone call between Scholz and Putin symbolises modern diplomacy's dialectics: where engagement is a necessity, yet fraught, all at once; where the line separating dialogue from appeasement perilously thins out. What is at stake is nothing less than the principles on which the international order rests.

Can Europe remain united in the face of divergent national interests and external pressures? Might diplomacy be a path to ending the war without sacrificing Ukrainian sovereignty? These are the questions that will define the contours of the postwar world.


Conclusion: Between Principle and Pragmatism

Scholz’s decision to engage Putin was a gamble—a recognition that diplomacy remains essential even in the face of seemingly irreconcilable differences. Yet, the risks are profound. Without a clear framework that prioritises justice and accountability, such dialogues risk legitimising aggression and undermining the very norms they seek to uphold.  

As the fog of war thickens and the geopolitical chessboard grows more complex, one truth endures: the cost of peace cannot be paid in the currency of compromise. The Scholz-Putin call is a reminder that diplomacy, while indispensable, is no panacea. It is a tool wielded in the hope that principle and pragmatism might yet find common ground in the pursuit of a just and lasting peace.


The views and opinions expressed in this article belong solely to the writer and do not necessarily reflect the views and opinions of the Warwick Economics Summit.


 

References:

Al Jazeera. "Germany’s Scholz Speaks to Russia’s Putin for First Time in Two Years." Al Jazeera, 15 Nov. 2024, www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/11/15/germanys-scholz-speaks-to-russias-putin-for-first-time-in-two-years. 

Chazan, Guy. "German Leader Olaf Scholz Speaks to Vladimir Putin for First Time in 2 Years." Financial Times, 15 Nov. 2024, www.ft.com/content/f0ee8249-efa3-4221-ab9d-47fd779ecb51. 

The Guardian. "Scholz’s Call with Putin Will Open ‘Pandora’s Box’, Zelenskyy Says." The Guardian, 15 Nov. 2024, www.theguardian.com/world/2024/nov/15/scholz-urges-putin-in-phone-call-to-negotiate-with-ukraine. 

Hayden, Jones. "Scholz Call with Putin Opens a ‘Pandora’s Box,’ Ukraine’s Zelenskyy Complains." POLITICO, 16 Nov. 2024, www.politico.eu/article/olaf-scholz-call-vladimir-putin-open-pandoras-box-volodymyr-zelenskyy/. 

Sky News. "Scholz's Phone Call with Putin Opens 'Pandora's Box', Says Zelenskyy." Sky News, 16 Nov. 2024, news.sky.com/story/zelenskyy-says-phone-call-between-scholz-and-putin-opens-pandoras-box-13254987. 

Tankersley, Jim, et al. "Nytimes.com." The New York Times - Breaking News, US News, World News and Videos, 15 Nov. 2024, www.nytimes.com/2024/11/15/world/europe/scholz-putin-russia-germany-call.html. 

VOA News. "Germany's Scholz Speaks with Putin, Demands Russia Withdraw from Ukraine." Voice of America, 15 Nov. 2024, www.voanews.com/a/germany-s-scholz-speaks-with-putin-demands-russia-withdraw-from-ukraine/7865605.html. 

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